0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
320
640
960
1,280
Championship Predictor — 10,000 Monte Carlo Sims
P(UConn wins)
Simulation count
coin flip (50%)
mean P(UConn) = 27.2%
10,000 simulations, every one below 50% for UConn. The tallest bars sit right around 27%, which is the blended model's point estimate.